Bernstein'e göre bitcoin dibini gördü ve Strategy için %226'lık bir yükseliş potansiyeli taşıyor

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Analysts at research and brokerage firm Bernstein said bitcoin (BTC) looks to have bottomed and that treasury firm Strategy could see 226% upside from Monday's closing price of $138.20, maintaining an outperform rating and $450 price target, while citing the company’s resilience through bitcoin’s roughly 50% drawdown from its October 2025 peak.

Shares in Strategy (MSTR) have risen 10.9% over the past month, according to The Block’s MSTR price page, though the stock remains down 57.3% over the prior six months.

Capital strategy, not bitcoin price, drives the investment case

The analysts argued that Strategy’s pivot to perpetual preferred instruments has made the investment case less dependent on short-term bitcoin price action. The company launched the STRC preferred share in July 2025, positioning it as a digital credit alternative to money market instruments with a monthly cash dividend now at 11.5%.

STRC's monthly trading volumes have grown 65% over the past three months to a 30-day average daily volume of $220 million, according to the analysts, making it the most liquid preferred product in the market. The instrument trades on retail platforms including Robinhood and SoFi Invest. Institutional investors, including FMR, BlackRock, Capital Group, and VanEck, own roughly 23% of the outstanding STRC supply, they said.

Bernstein highlighted that Strategy has raised $2.1 billion from STRC year-to-date, including $1.2 billion in a single week of March 9-15. The company deployed $2.2 billion of that capital to acquire roughly 29,400 BTC through STRC-linked at-the-market offerings.

The analysts noted that preferred instruments now represent $10 billion of Strategy’s $18 billion outstanding debt and preferred equity stack, with convertible debt maturities starting in 2028. Strategy’s cumulative annual financing cost stands at $1.1 billion, including $35 million in interest expenses and $1.05 billion in preferred dividend obligations.

Balance sheet remains over-collateralized

Strategy’s balance sheet holds $56 billion in bitcoin and cash against $18 billion in total debt, according to Bernstein. The company’s cash reserves alone cover annual dividend and interest costs for 25 months, while the $54 billion bitcoin position covers annual financing obligations for roughly 50 years.

Bernstein said Strategy’s leverage ratio stands at 20% to 30% of bitcoin net asset value, a range the firm considers conservative. The company has historically commanded a premium to its bitcoin NAV, trading at a $64 billion enterprise value that represents a 16% premium on its bitcoin holdings. That compares to a 57% average premium since Strategy adopted its bitcoin treasury strategy in August 2020.

Bitcoin bottom thesis underpins upside

Bernstein’s call on Strategy rests on its view that bitcoin has bottomed. The firm said bitcoin ETFs added $2.2 billion over the past four weeks, reversing year-to-date outflows to a net $364 million outflow against a $90 billion asset base. ETFs now hold 6.1% of the total bitcoin supply.

The analysts pointed to long-term holder behavior as a structural backstop. According to Glassnode data cited by Bernstein, 60% of the bitcoin supply has been inactive for more than one year. Bitcoin has outperformed gold by 25% since the inception of the Iran conflict, the firm said, citing digital properties including cross-border portability and censorship resistance.

The firm also retained its $150,000 year-end 2026 bitcoin price forecast and expects the cycle to peak at $200,000 in 2027.

Acquisitions continued through the downturn

Contrary to expectations of balance sheet liquidation, Strategy has added 89,599 bitcoin year-to-date through the recent bear market, Bernstein said. The company raised $7.3 billion through a mix of common and preferred equity for bitcoin acquisitions while BTC fell 19% over the same period.

The acquisitions marked Strategy’s second-largest quarterly purchase since adopting its bitcoin treasury strategy in 2020, according to the analysts. Strategy now holds 762,099 BTC, roughly 3.6% of total global supply, with a net asset value of $53.5 billion at current prices.

Bernstein noted that Strategy’s year-to-date bitcoin purchases have outstripped incremental bitcoin supply, a dynamic the firm attributed to a changed market structure where Strategy acts as what the analysts called the “bitcoin central bank of last resort” while ETFs attract more resilient, less speculative capital.

Base case and bear case

Bernstein’s $450 Strategy price target reflects a sum-of-the-parts valuation that assigns a 2x EV/sales multiple to the firm’s software business and applies a long-term sustainable premium of 39% to the company’s bitcoin holdings.

In the firm’s base case, Strategy grows its bitcoin stack to 1.3 million BTC by 2033, representing 6.3% of total supply. Fixed-income instruments led by STRC could contribute 22% of cumulative capital proceeds over the period, with common stock ATM raises contributing the remaining 78%, according to the analysts.

Bernstein's bear case assumes Strategy’s bitcoin holdings stagnate at 4.6% of total supply, with bitcoin’s price peaking at $200,000 in 2027, followed by an extended bear market that impairs the company’s ability to scale its capital strategy, forcing liquidation to repay out-of-the-money convertibles and preferred dividends.

Gautam Chhugani maintains long positions in various cryptocurrencies.

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